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End Bias in Big Construction Project Predictions

March 30, 2017

Via: ENR

Infrastructure planners and builders need to rethink how they approach and compute uncertainty and risk, especially on complex projects such as Seattle’s state Route 99, a tunnel to replace the old Alaskan Way Viaduct. “Bertha,” the tunnel-boring machine, recently resumed work on the project after a long, costly interruption.

Game theory, a branch of social science, may have been a better approach than probability theory to guiding the project team on risks and risk management.

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